报告题目: Multi-model perspectives on tropospheric ozone, 1850-2100

　　报 告 人: Dr. Paul Young

　　单 位: Lancaster University, UK

　　时 间: 2016年1月28日（周四）上午10:30

　　地 点: LAPC多功能厅

　　Abstract

　　Various global multi-model studies have investigated tropospheric ozone changes over multi-decadal timescales. Several robust features emerge, which – for instance – allows the IPCC to associate high confidence in the radiative forcing associated with ozone increases between 1750 and the present day. However, such quantities hide the spread in results between different models, particularly when looking at seasonal and regional scales, and including for comparisons with observations. What can we learn about our scientific understanding from the model spread? What can we learn about models from the model spread? And can we make recommendations for deficient or missing processes if we wish to use our models for environmental prediction?