【报告人】Prof. Youmin Tang
【报告人单位】Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC
In this talk, I will briefly review some methods used in the study of atmospheric/oceanic potential predictability, including the optimal error growth and probability prediction. As an example, the potential predictability of the northern America (NA) surface air temperature was explored using information-based predictability framework and ENSEMBLE multiple model ensembles. The emphasis was put on the comparison between information-based and conventional SNR (signal-to noise ratio)-based potential predictability, and the optimal decomposition of predictable component using the method of maximizing the predictable information (or equivalent the maximum of SNR).